ScoreSunrise.com

Every score is a 0–100 rating of how good the sunrise should look from Sydney's east-facing beaches — not whether the sun will rise (it will), but whether the sky will be worth getting up for. We weigh five atmospheric factors: cloud quality (45%), visibility (25%), humidity (15%), wind (10%) and the pressure trend (5%), using ECMWF forecast data sampled about 20km offshore. That's where it matters — at dawn the light comes in almost sideways, so the clouds out at sea are the ones that catch the colour. The full method is on the Sunrise Science page.

Over 70: set an alarm. Expect real colour — oranges and pinks lighting up the cloud, not just a brightening sky.

40–70: a coin toss. Fine if you're already awake; probably not worth a 5am wake-up on its own.

Under 40: sleep in. Usually a grey lid of low cloud or a sky too clear to hold any colour.

Scores update every 60 minutes and cover today plus the next two days. Tomorrow's number is firmer than the one two days out, so check again the night before — and arrive about half an hour before the listed sunrise time, because the best colour usually peaks before the sun clears the horizon.

The recipe is fairly consistent: 30–50% mid-level cloud to catch the light, clear air underneath, a dry westerly breeze, and rising pressure — the classic morning-after-a-front pattern. Too much low cloud and the show happens above a grey ceiling; a perfectly empty sky just goes from dark to bright. Our Cloud Guide explains which clouds help and which hurt, and the Best Locations guide covers where to stand along the coast — from Bondi and Coogee to the Northern Beaches and Cronulla — once the score says go. Quick answers live on the FAQ.